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For the better part of three months I have stared at the Toronto Blue Jays and wondered how their heads were still above water. Sure, they were a pretty good team in 2008. They had strong starting pitching and an above average defense.

But “09 was supposed to be a struggle. The Blue Jays replaced four of their five starters. Their highest-paid player, a centerfielder in the second year of a 6-million contract, has a slugging percentage worse than Scott Podsednik. And Toronto has lost all faith in the closer who saved 32 games last season.

Yet, here we are in the final week of June, and the Blue Jays are just a handful of games out of the wild card race. Were they vastly underestimated, or was this an aberration caused by favorable scheduling?

Furthermore, why should you even care?

Because Tampa Bay’s postseason hopes could be in danger if it turns out the Blue Jays are not a fluke. Beginning tonight in Toronto, the Rays have 18 games remaining against Toronto. That’s 18 out of 85. That’s about 21 percent of the rest of the season.

In other words, if the Rays struggle to beat Toronto then they’re going to have a heck of time running down New York and Boston for playoff spots. The Rays are more than halfway through the season series against Boston and they’re close to the halfway point with the Yankees. But they have 29 combined games against the Orioles and Blue Jays, and that’s where they better make a move.

So, beginning with tonight’s series, Tampa Bay gets its first look at whether Toronto is for real. The Blue Jays have been impressive (35-27) outside the division, but have struggled (6-9) in the AL East. For Tampa Bay’s sake, that had better continue.